Pew poll results on
Democratic presidential race
Associated Press
December 8, 2003
By The Associated Press
Results of national and state polls on the Democratic presidential race released Monday by the Pew Research Center. (http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198)
The polls were taken Nov. 18-Dec. 4.
The Iowa poll of 394 likely caucus voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6 percentage points. The New Hampshire poll of 585 likely voters, the South Carolina poll of 566 likely voters and a separate national poll of 469 voters who are Democratic or lean Democratic had margins of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
When results don't total 100 percent, the remainder didn't know or refused to answer.
NATIONAL: Howard Dean, 15 percent; Wesley Clark, 15 percent; Dick Gephardt; 12 percent; Joe Lieberman, 12 percent; John Kerry, 6 percent; John Edwards, 5 percent; Al Sharpton, 5 percent; Moseley Braun, 4 percent; Kucinich, 2 percent.
IOWA: Dean, 29 percent; Gephardt, 21 percent; Kerry, 18 percent; Edwards, 5 percent, Kucinich, 4 percent; Clark, 3 percent; Lieberman, 1 percent; Moseley Braun, 1 percent; Sharpton, 1 percent.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Dean, 34 percent; Kerry, 20 percent; Clark, 8 percent; Lieberman, 8 percent; Gephardt, 5 percent; Edwards, 4 percent; Kucinich, 1 percent; Moseley Braun, 1 percent; Sharpton, 1 percent.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Edwards, 16 percent; Clark, 11 percent; Gephardt, 10 percent; Lieberman, 9 percent; Sharpton, 8 percent; Dean, 7 percent; Kerry, 3 percent; Moseley Braun, 2 percent; Kucinich, 0 percent.
Final results:
December 9th -- Based on poll results, Ted Koppel demanded during a presidential debate he was hosting that 3 candidates get out of the race saying they had no chance of winning.
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National |
Iowa |
New Hampshire |
South Carolina |
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Pew Poll Dec 8 |
Pew Poll Dec 8 |
Actual caucus delegates --Jan 19 |
Pew Poll Dec 8 |
Actual Vote --Jan 27 |
Pew Poll Dec 8 |
Actual Vote --Feb 3 |
|
Howard Dean |
15% |
29% |
18% |
34% |
28% |
7% |
5% |
|
Wesley Clark |
15% |
3% |
0% |
8% |
13% |
11% |
7% |
|
Dick Gephardt |
12% |
21% |
11% |
5% |
withdraw |
10% |
withdraw |
|
Joe Lieberman |
12% |
1% |
0% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
2% |
|
John Kerry |
6% |
18% |
38% |
20% |
39% |
3% |
30% |
|
John Edwards |
5% |
5% |
32% |
4% |
12% |
16% |
45% |
|
Al Sharpton |
5% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
8% |
10% |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4% |
4% |
withdrawn |
1% |
withdraw |
2% |
withdraw |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
margin of sampling error
national poll: plus or minus 5 percentage points
Iowa: plus or minus 6 percentage points
New Hampshire: plus or minus 5 percentage points
South Carolina: plus or minus 5 percentage points
On actual election day,
(Iowa) They missed: Edwards by 27 percentage points, Kerry by 20 points, Dean by 11 points, and Gephardt by 10 points.
(New Hampshire) They missed Kerry by 19 percentage points, Edwards by 8 points.
(South Carolina) They missed Edwards by 29 percentage points, Kerry by 27 points.
As a pupil, Ted Koppel did not learn very well.
Carol Moseley Braun drops out January 15
Now, keep in mind that a candidate has to get 51% of all the delegates to be nominated.
However, based on the first results, we had the media (and pollsters) declaring that John Kerry was unstoppable early on.
In the Iowa caucuses, Kerry had 38% of the delegates -- well below the 51% pace needed for nomination.
In New Hampshire, he gets 39% of the votes and
Before the day of Super Tuesday, the race was all but over. In the New York state primary, the remaining candidates did not even run ads in New York City because they could not afford it. They also did not focus much on California.
However, even at this late date, a review of the actual number of delegates would reveal much different picture than that painted by the media. Kerry still needed to win 46% of all the remaining delegates -- a pace at which he had
As of the day of Super Tuesday (March 2), Kerry, the highest Kerry had finished in the popular vote in any of the 17 primaries was 54%. He had gotten 50% three times and in fully 10 of 17 states, he had gotten between 27% - 47% (an average of only 39%).
This was hardly a landslide. Even more significantly, the majority of voters indicated their support was soft (easily changeable) -- and most significant of all, the majority of Kerry voters said their choice was based on the fact that he was the candidate Òmost likely to beat Bush.Ó And that assessment was based almost entirely on public opinion polls be flaunted by the media. When asked who they actually preferred, Kerry was not their first choice or often even their second choice.
This farce was brought to you by a media that had thoroughly misunderstood public opinion polls.
Certainty -- prediction and control -- is one of the promises of science.
We need to be more honest about the power of public opinion polls -- or more precisely, the power of individual choice.
when measuring individual choice -- human being still have will power.
However, the charade of being able to predict results creates a bandwagon effect and interferes with democracy.
MSNBC/REUTERS ZOGBY IOWA POLL
Four way race: Kerry leads by 1 point
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1/10-12
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1/11-13
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1/12-14
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Kerry |
17% |
21% |
22% |
|
Dean |
28% |
24% |
21% |
|
Gephardt |
23% |
21% |
21% |
|
Edwards |
14% |
15% |
17% |
|
Lieberman |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Clark |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
Kucinich |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
Sharpton |
.1% |
.1% |
.1% |
|
Braun |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Undecided |
12% |
13% |
11% |